Reklam
Vakıf Katılım
Tarih : 2020-07-13 13:39:00

I/P shows Covid effect for annual data, low base effect for monthly data

Turkey’s May working day adjusted industrial production, contracted by 19.9% compared to the same month of the previous year. Seasonally and working day adjusted industrial production increased by 17.4% compared to the previous month. According to unadjusted data, industrial production contracted by 30.7% compared to the same period of the previous year.

Although the 17.4% increase in monthly data seems pretty good, it should be kept in mind that this is a low base recovery with pandemics and that industrial production is far below annual levels on an annual basis. Therefore, temporary high increases on a monthly basis do not give us much idea in terms of the general tendency of industrial production at this point. The sustainability of the recovery after the Covid-19 crisis, in which the world economy is going through a difficult process, also depends on the reduction of virus uncertainties. In an environment of uncertainty regarding the second virus wave, this would be a difficult development.

When we look at the details; While mining and quarrying increased by 4.5% on a monthly basis, it decreased by 14.2% on an annual basis. While the manufacturing industry increased by 19.3% on a monthly basis, a contraction of 20.6% was realized on an annual basis. The electricity, gas and steam group saw a 4.9% increase on a monthly basis, while the contraction was 13.3% on an annual basis. On a monthly basis, capital goods increased by 40.2%, consumer durables by 25.9%, intermediate goods by 14.6%, non-durable consumer goods by 13.9% and energy by 3.7%. Looking at the annual changes in the related items; durable consumer goods 33.4%, capital goods 24.2%, non-durable consumer goods 20.4%, intermediate goods 17.5% and energy 14.4%. In the manufacturing industry, the bottom-up effect on a monthly basis draws attention, while a double-digit contraction continues for each item on an annual basis.

As the world economy, the supply and demand of Turkey's economy has experienced simultaneous shock and its implications for the production and export / import was observed in the trend. Although the gradual recovery in Europe is seen as a plus in the short term for now, uncertainties regarding the second wave of Covid-19 also make the perception of recovery fragile. Turkey’s economy had entered a downward trend because of the intrinsic shock and industrial production contracted on an annual basis, from September 2018 until September 2019. Industrial production, which had a positive trend until March 2020, has again turned into a negative trend on an annual basis with the effects of Covid-19, and this is due to both internal and external shock. If the opening in economies continues gradually with normalization, we can see monthly increases, but we expect annual data to remain negative over a period of several months.

Source: Tera Menkul
Hibya News Agency

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