Reklam
Vakıf Katılım
Tarih : 2020-08-14 13:15:00

The sustainability of the recovery in I/P in the following months is important

According to unadjusted data, there was an increase of 17.3% in industrial production compared to the same period of the previous year.

 

In industrial production, which is already normally a very volatile data, due to the special conditions brought about by the pandemic, the forecast intervals have been widened and the deviations are taking place very sharply. The June period, of course, points to positive data in terms of overcoming the contraction. With the economic normalization, return to work and the increase in activity, the acceleration of production can be seen. Of course, the acceleration in July and August will also be important, as June is a period when return to work is seen at the minimal, initial level and there is still a significant amount of remote work. At this point, the sustainability of recovery will be our main concern while the pandemic threat continues.

 

Looking at the details; While mining and quarrying increased 7.8% on a monthly basis, it contracted by 8% on an annual basis. While there was an increase of 19% on a monthly basis in the manufacturing industry, a growth of 1% was realized on an annual basis. In the electricity, gas and steam group, an increase of 6.7% was observed on a monthly basis, while the contraction was realized at the level of 6.4% on an annual basis. On a monthly basis, durable consumer goods increased by 33.2%, capital goods by 20.8%, non-durable consumer goods by 18.4%, intermediate goods by 17% and energy by 5.5%. Considering the annual changes in the related items; Nondurable goods increased by 2.2%, intermediate goods by 2% and capital goods by 0.4%, while durable consumer goods decreased by 33.4%, capital goods by 24.2%, non-durable consumer goods by 13.4% and energy by 8.2%.

 

With the industrial production in April, May and June, the 2Q20 GDP growth was also captured. It is seen that industrial production contracted by 16.9% in 2Q20 compared to the previous year. Therefore, despite the relatively positive June data, we will see a double digit contraction in the 2Q20 period, just like global economies. It will be important to continue the normalization that started in June and to maintain the current levels in production. Therefore, we will pay attention to the realizations in July and August, and the increasingly continuing economic activity shows that 3Q20 growth will be more positive. Domestic and external demand conditions, which change with the pandemic, and the impact of the epidemic on economic activity in the autumn months will be determining variables.

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